Emigration vs. immigration: Numbers, facts, reality

 

Recent publications by the authorities on the movement of the population have prompted a number of accusations and disagreements. There have been allegations that the authorities are trying to manipulate the figures using the presence of some 37,000 Indian residents in Armenia.

So, what has been the real picture of emigration and immigration over the last three years, according to the data provided by the National Statistics Committee? And what is the actual situation this year based on nine months of data?

Since sometimes the public is not introduced to the balance of those who have left and arrived with the RA documents only along with the total figures, we will fill that gap by using the data published by the same National Statistics Committee.

Thus, in 2016, 2,867,008 persons entered Armenia through the RA border crossings, of which 1,665,350 were Armenian citizens.

The number of those who left the country is 2,915,178, of which 1,719,381 were Armenian citizens.

That is, in 2016 the number of the Armenian population decreased by 48,170 and the number of Armenian citizens decreased by 54,031.

The next year, in 2017, 3,398,143 people entered Armenia, of which 1,927,178 were Armenian citizens.

In the same year, 3,425,040 people left the country, 1,963,469 of whom were RA citizens.

That is, in 2017 the population of the country decreased by 26,897 and the number of the citizens of Armenia by 36,191.

In 2018, 3,757,168 persons entered the country at the RA border checkpoints, of which 2,146,725 left with RA identification documents.

Last year the number of people who left the country was 3,741,855, of which 2,151,313 were considered Armenian citizens.

This means that the salto of the arrivals and departures was positive and the population of the country has increased by 15,313. However, the number of RA citizens continued to decline. Last year 4588 Armenian citizens left the country.

Thus, we can state that in recent years the tendency of the decline of the Armenian population has been slowing down as the country’s population declined by 48,170 in 2016, by 26,897 in 2017, and last year there was a positive salto in arrivals and departures – 15,313.

There is also an obvious reduction in the negative dynamics of Armenian citizens leaving the country. As we have seen, 54,031 Armenian citizens left Armenia in 2016, 36,191 in 2017 and 4588 last year.

Now let’s see how the picture of arrivals and departures has changed over the last three years (January to September).

Thus, in 2017 the number of arrivals in January-September made 2,520,746, of which 1,372,292 were RA citizens.

Number of departures made 2,574,658, of which 1,447,307 were RA citizens. That is, in the first nine months of 2017, the difference between arrivals and departures was -53,912, and for Armenian citizens -75,015.

During the same period in 2018, 2,732,430 persons entered Armenia, of which 1,483,500 had RA identification documents.

During the same period, 2,748,125 persons left the country, 1,525,682 of whom were RA citizens. That is, the population of the country decreased by 15,695 in the first nine months of the previous year, and the number of RA citizens by 42,182.

In the first nine months of this year 3,135,506 persons entered Armenia, 1,666,321 of whom were Armenian citizens.

This year 3,145,363 people have left the country, 1,701,870 of whom are RA citizens.

That is, during the first nine months of this year the population of the country decreased by 9857 and the citizens of Armenia by 35,549.

However, the fact that the fourth quarter of the year is considered to be a “season of immigration” shall also be taken into consideration since seasonal workers return to Armenia, and the current figure of 35,549 may drop substantially, turning into a positive number.

As for the rumors among politicians and the public regarding 37,000 Indians who came to Armenia in the first nine months of this year, we should note that according to the border registrations of arrivals and departures at checkpoints in the first nine months of this year, 28,741 Indians arrived in Armenia in the first nine months of this year, and 29,345 departed.

You can see the number of border crossings at Armenian checkpoints by Indian citizens in the last three years in the following table.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

Summing up the statistics of arrivals and departures at the RA border crossings in the last 3 years, we can state that the tendency of the decrease of the population of Armenia in the last 3 years, both for the whole year and 9 months, is really slowing down.

Vahagn Khachatryan

[easy-social-share buttons="facebook,twitter,vk,telegram" counters=1 style="icon" point_type="simple"]