Mamijanyan-Papoyan statistical debate: who was actually right?

During one of the discussions at the March 1 sitting of the National Assembly, “With honor” faction MP Hayk Mamijanyan stated that during the years of the Republican Party’s rule, pensions, salaries, GDP and budget revenues had increased several times.

“During the years of the RPA rule, the GDP increased by 210%, the GDP per capita – almost 2 times, again almost 200%, the minimum salary 3.6 times, the average salary increased almost 3 times, the average pension 3.6 times and state budget revenues increased 2.3 times,” he said.

In response to Mamijanyan’s statement, MP from the “Civil Contract” faction Gevorg Papoyan stated that Mamijanyan’s allegations were exaggerated. “Honestly, I do not know what rationale was applied for this calculation, how you calculated, but I could not find the number 3.6. If the starting point of your rule is assumed 99, then it was not so, if you assume 2008, it is not so, if 2009, it is not so. ”

Papoyan then presented in his speech his own observations on the data voiced by Mamijanyan. “In 2009, the minimum salary was 30,000 AMD, and at the time of handing over power (in April 2018 – ed.) it was 55,000 drams, so the difference is 1.8 times, not 3.6 times, that is, here the data is obviously wrong. You say you increased 3.6 times. When looking at the statistics, we see that it has increased from 96 thousand to 172 thousand, it has increased only 1.8 times. In other words, you present the statistics twice falsified again,” Papoyan stated.

Fact Investigation Platform decided to study the archives of the Statistics Committee to find out which deputy exaggerates or falsifies the statistics.

What are the years of the RPA rule?

Speaking to Fact Investigation Platform, MP Hayk Mamijanyan said that by “years of the rule of Republican Party of Armenia” he meant from 2007 to 2018, as Serzh Sargsyan assumed the post of head of government in 2007, so the previous year of 2006 was taken as a basis for calculation. Meanwhile, Papoyan presented the years 2009-2018 under this expression.

• The RPA came to power as a member of the “Unity” bloc in 1999․ As a result of the elections held in May, the party leader Vazgen Sargsyan became prime minister. Then, after the October 27 crime, Aram Sargsyan, a member of the Republican Party of Armenia, Vazgen Sargsyan’s brother, became the head of the government. In 2000, he was replaced by RPA leader Andranik Margaryan, who held the post of Prime Minister until he died in 2007. From 2003 to 2017 the RPA gained the most votes by different indexes in the parliamentary elections, forming the axis of coalition governments or forming a sole government.

Now let us try to understand what the indexes voiced by MP Mamijanyan in those years were.

We have taken as a basis for comparison not only the years 2009 and 2006 assumed by Papoyan and Mamijanyan, but also the year of Serzh Sargsyan’s election as president (2008) and the year Andranik Margaryan became prime minister (2000).

Minimum salary and average salary

According to Mamijanyan, the minimum salary increased 3.6 times in 2006-2018, and the average salary almost 3 times.

According to Papoyan, both indexes have increased 1.8 times.

The minimum salary in Armenia in 2000 was AMD 5,000, in 2006 – AMD15,000, in 2008 – AMD25,000, in 2009 – AMD30,000. In 2018, the minimum salary in Armenia was AMD55 thousand.

Accordingly, if we start the calculation of the years of the RPA rule from 2000, the minimum salary increase will be 11 times, in case of calculating from 2006 – 3.7 times, in case of 2008 – 2.2 times, and in case of 2009 – 1.8 times.

As for the average salary, in 2000 it was AMD22,700, in 2006 AMD62,300, in 2008 AMD87,400, in 2009 AMD96,000. In 2018, it was already AMD172,700.

Subsequently, the average salary increased 7.6 times as compared to 2000, 2.7 times – to 2006, almost 2 times – to 2008, and 1.8 times – to 2009.

Pension and budget revenues

According to Hayk Mamijanyan, the average pension has increased 3.6 times in the period he mentioned, and the state budget revenues – 2.3 times. Gevorg Papoyan did not mention any numbers, but accused Mamijanyan of falsifying the numbers.

According to the Statistics Committee, the average pension in 2000 was AMD4500, in 2006 – AMD10 900, in 2008 – AMD 21 400, and 2009 – AMD24 500.

When the power changed in 2018 the average pension was AMD40 500.

This means that the average pension has increased 9 times compared to 2000, 3.7 times compared to 2006, 1.9 times compared to 2008, and 1.7 times compared to 2009.

As for the state budget revenues, in 2000 it was AMD172 billion, in 2006 – AMD441 billion, in 2008 – AMD785 billion, and 2009 – AMD690 billion.

In 2018, Armenia’s budget was already AMD1.342 billion, which is 7.8 times more than in 2000, 3 times more than in 2006, and 1.7 and 1.9 times more than in 2008 and 2009, respectively.

GDP and GDP per capita

According to Mamijanyan, the country’s GDP and GDP per capita have almost doubled. In this case, Papoyan did not mention any numbers.

In 2018, according to the Statistics Committee, the country’s GDP in dram was AMD6,017 billion, which was 5.8 times higher than in 2000, 2.3 times higher than in 2006, 1.7 times higher than in 2008, and 1.9 times higher than in 2009.

 

The GDP per capita in 2018 was more than AMD2 million. The GDP per capita in the country in 2000 was AMD 320 thousand, in 2006 – AMD850 thousand, in 2008 – AMD 1 156 thousand, and in 2009 – AMD1 024 thousand. That is, this index has increased 6.3 times as compared to 2000, 2.4 times compared to 2006, and 1.8 times and 2 times compared to 2008-2009, respectively.

Thus, if we assume that the years of rule of the Republican Party started from the date of Serzh Sargsyan’s appointment as Prime Minister, the numbers voiced by Mamijanyan are correct. On the other hand, the numbers voiced by Papoyan are also correct, if the calculation is based not on 2006, but 2009, the year following Serzh Sargsyan’s election as President.

And if we take as a basis for calculation the year Andranik Margaryan became the head of the government, the actual increase is much higher than the numbers voiced by the deputies.

However, during the debate at the NA tribune by the deputies, Gevorg Papoyan advised presenting the statistics with the right methodology, while he often resorts to manipulations when presenting the statistical indexes. For example, at May 10, 2021, sitting at the National Assembly, trying to show the achievements of their government, he announced that the country’s GDP had doubled in drams compared to 2007. Meanwhile, more than 90% of that increase was the achievement of the Republican Party during the years of power.

Sevada Ghazaryan